Will Betis secure a spot in the semifinals at home?
Betis Sevilla came close to claiming their first European title last season. However, as expected, they lost the Europa Conference League final 1-4 to Chelsea. Clearly, though, the Andalusians have drawn a lot of courage from that defeat to now aim for the silverware one level higher. On Thursday evening, the team led by Chilean coach Manuel Pellegrini has a good chance of reaching the UEFA Europa League semifinals. Following the 1-1 draw in the first leg in Portugal, the outlook for Betis Sevilla’s advancement ahead of their second-leg match against Braga is quite favorable.
One factor in favor of the fifth-place La Liga side is their home strength on the international stage. They have won all of their last four Europa League home matches. Across all competitions this season, Real Betis has gone eight European matches without a loss in front of their home fans (6-2-0). In league play, the Green-Whites have earned ten out of a possible twelve points in four home games; and in the Round of 16, they added a convincing 4-0 victory over Panathinaikos.
The fact that lower odds are being offered on the 1X2 market for a Betis Sevilla home win against Braga is also linked to the fact that the visitors from Portugal have lost nine of their last eleven knockout matches on the European stage away from home. In the round of 16, the Red-Whites also lost 0-2 to Ferencvaros Budapest and ultimately needed a stellar performance in front of their own fans (4-0) to even secure a spot in the quarterfinals. Overall, this is the fourth international quarterfinal for Sporting Clube, though they have never managed to win the second leg in their previous three attempts.
Given that they’ve won just three of their last seven competitive matches and have managed a maximum of one goal in four consecutive games, I can’t see the betting odds on the underdog paying off in the Betis Sevilla vs. Braga matchup.
Betis Sevilla – Braga Head-to-Head Record
In the first leg a week ago, former Bundesliga player Florian Grillitsch put Braga ahead 1-0 after just five minutes. The Andalusians failed to respond immediately because a goal by Marc Bartra (7th minute) was disallowed after a VAR review. Nevertheless, the Spaniards earned the 1-1 draw in the second half thanks to an improved performance. The goal was scored by Cucho Hernandez from the penalty spot. The 26-year-old Colombian was in the starting lineup for only the fourth time this Europa League season and has already scored three goals. On Thursday, I expect him to start up front as well, so he is definitely a contender to score at attractive 2.65 odds at Interwetten.
Betis Sevilla – Braga Tip
For the second consecutive season, Betis Sevilla could advance to the semifinals of a European competition. The Green-Whites have won all of their last six knockout matches at the international level. The outlook for Thursday is also very good. After all, Pellegrini’s side can rely on their home advantage. The Andalusians are unbeaten in their last eight European matches at home. So far this season, they have four wins and one draw. Despite their overall form being at best average recently, the southern Spaniards are therefore, in my opinion, rightly favored.
Especially given that Braga is clearly weaker on the road. Already in the second half of the first leg, the northern Portuguese managed only an xG value of 0.07. To make matters worse, the Red-Whites now have to battle a miserable run of form in southern Spain. They have lost nine of their last eleven knockout matches played in non-home stadiums. Without further ado, I therefore recommend the Betis Sevilla vs. Braga tip for a home win.
