Will the world No. 1 extend his winning streak?
Jannik Sinner became the first player since Novak Djokovic to win the “Triple” consisting of the Sunshine Double (Indian Wells and Miami) and the Monte Carlo Masters. With this, the Italian has won all three Masters tournaments in 2026 and extended his winning streak to 24 consecutive singles matches at the Masters level.
If Jannik Sinner also beats Cameron Norrie, the world No. 1 would move one step closer to his fourth Masters title of the current season. His challenger, playing under the British flag, has, however, overcome the “Madrid curse” himself. After the South African-born player had failed to advance past the third round four times in a row, he has now cleared that hurdle for the first time.
Noteworthy: Against Argentine clay-court specialist Thiago Agustin Tirante, Cameron Norrie saved ten out of eleven break points (90.9 percent) in his 2-0 victory (7-5, 7-6). In doing so, the world No. 23 underscored his fighting spirit, which could also work to his advantage in his first-ever match against Jannik Sinner. Although there is little to suggest an upset—former “giant-killer” Norrie now has a mere 30 percent win rate against top-10 players—we can easily imagine the 30-year-old dragging the world No. 1 into at least a tiebreak. If any player on the ATP Tour can physically keep up with the South Tyrolean, it’s surely the extremely fit Cameron Norrie.
Another factor is that Cameron Norrie is a left-hander, which poses a challenge even for top players. It’s no coincidence that the Brit beat then-world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz in Paris just last November. And yet: Jannik Sinner averages ten aces per match and should be able to showcase his serve effectively in Madrid’s thin, high-altitude air. So for those who find the risk associated with betting on over 0.5 tiebreaks too high, there’s likely no way around betting on a clean 2-0 victory for the Italian.
Jannik Sinner – Cameron Norrie Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 0-0
Although both players have been among the world’s best for years, curiously enough, their paths have never crossed before. In fact, this is their first-ever meeting, meaning there is no “head-to-head” data available that could influence our prediction for Jannik Sinner vs. Cameron Norrie.
Jannik Sinner – Cameron Norrie Prediction
Cameron Norrie has already defeated several top stars of the ATP Tour, particularly in the early stages of his career, and proved as recently as last November in Paris with his victory over Carlos Alcaraz that he hasn’t completely shed his “giant killer” image. Overall, however, his record against top-10 players has settled at a 30 percent win rate. Moreover, he has never faced Jannik Sinner before. There is therefore good reason to believe that the South Tyrolean will continue his now 24-match winning streak in Masters tournaments and secure an unchallenged 2-0 victory.
If you’re looking for higher betting odds on Jannik Sinner vs. Cameron Norrie but don’t want to take an unconditional risk, you can bet at bet365 at odds of 4.50 that at least one set will go to a tiebreak. This is supported by the fact that the Brit is one of the physically strongest players on the ATP Tour, having just saved ten out of eleven break points in the third round and repeatedly fought his way out of tight spots.
