Will Wawrinka become “Marathon Stan” once again?

Now 41 years old, Stan Wawrinka will hang up his racket this year and end his long and glorious professional career, which began back in 2002—two years before the birth of his current opponent from the U.S. However, the Swiss player is far from being past his prime and can still hold his own in matches that go the full distance, as he proved in his 2-1 first-round victory over Raúl Brancaccio, whom “Marathon Stan” defeated in a tiebreak in the deciding set.

Even now, in the match between Stan Wawrinka and Alex Michelsen, we by no means rule out the possibility that the local hero—who has already claimed two tournament victories in Geneva and is now competing in this tournament for the first time since 2019—will advance to the quarterfinals.

After all, both the work ethic and physical stamina of the 41-year-old remain unbroken; this past January, he surpassed Roger Federer as the player with the most five-set matches in tennis history. So the fact that he spent two hours and nine minutes on the court in his opening match—more than three-quarters of an hour longer than his American challenger—is by no means an indication that the 21-year-old rising star, who has climbed to No. 41 in the ATP world rankings in 2026, now has the advantage. On the contrary: In front of his “home crowd,” we believe the Stanimal is capable of a strong performance even against an opponent half his age, and therefore see the greatest value in betting that Stan Wawrinka will win at least one set.

However, the Californian’s strong 2-0 opening victory must also be put into proper perspective. Alex Michelsen is not a classic clay-court player and prefers hard courts. However, he just beat Sebastian Baez, a South American clay-court specialist, in straight sets 7-5, 6-3, winning 70 percent of points on his first serve, allowing only three break points against him, and saving two of them. The 21-year-old will certainly not go down without a fight against the Swiss veteran.

Stan Wawrinka – Alex Michelsen Head-to-Head Record

Head to Head: 0:0

The two players have never faced each other in a ranked singles match on the ATP Tour. Consequently, there is no “head-to-head” data available that could influence our prediction for Stan Wawrinka vs. Alex Michelsen.

Stan Wawrinka – Alex Michelsen Prediction

Of course, it would be a bit of a rags-to-riches story if the two-time Geneva tournament winner and local hero could clinch one more singles title in Switzerland of all places, in his very last year as a professional tennis player and after a long comeback. His season record of seven wins to ten losses certainly doesn’t point in that direction. However, it’s also unlikely that he’ll be content with his celebrated opening victory and now shift down a few gears.

Consequently, it’s an intriguing bet that Stan the Man will win at least one set in this round of 16 match and, even if it’s not enough to reach the quarterfinals, will leave the Tennis Club de Genève with his head held high.