Will England have to exercise patience in its first knockout match as well?

The English national soccer team has advanced to the knockout stage of this World Cup undefeated. The tournament bracket also offers plenty to look forward to, as Argentina—a top-tier nation—wouldn’t be a threat until a potential semifinal. First, however, the prediction in favor of the “Three Lions” must hold true in the England vs. DR Congo matchup. According to the AI analysis, this seems to be a mere formality, although ahead of the Round of 16 match between England and the DR Congo, the prediction must take into account that the Africans have already managed to force a draw against Portugal in this tournament.

Pragmatic, result-oriented soccer trumps spectacle. Structured possession is a higher priority for Coach Tuchel than a wild, vertical style of play. Stability when defending must always be guaranteed. That is precisely why, ahead of England’s knockout match against the DR Congo, my prediction leans toward another lackluster victory for the star-studded “Three Lions.”

But what does the underdog from Central Africa have to offer? Is a surprise upset theoretically possible? The fact is that simply advancing to the round of 32 can already be considered a huge success for the team led by French coach Sébastien Desabre. Very few would have expected the Leopards to make it to the knockout stage as the top of the twelve third-place finishers in a group featuring Portugal, Colombia, and Uzbekistan.

England vs. DR Congo AI Prediction

Based on the xG values the AI has calculated for this match, only the game between world champion Argentina and Cape Verde has a clearer dynamic than this one. While Tuchel’s team is projected to have an xG of 2.02, the DR Congo is projected to have only 0.51 expected goals. This results in a difference of 1.51 goals. However, because higher odds are offered for the handicap (+1.5) in favor of the Africans—meaning a loss by no more than one goal—the England vs. DR Congo prediction actually leans somewhat toward the underdog.

England – Statistics & Current Form

Although England qualified for the knockout stage as group winners, the performance of the players from the home of soccer has so far been truly convincing only at times. Their offensive performance, in particular, currently relies heavily on two players: Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham were directly involved in five of England’s six tournament goals and virtually single-handedly decided the 2-0 win over Panama with a goal and an assist. Behind them, the team has so far lacked consistency and punch—other high-profile attackers have been unable to showcase their quality often enough.

Does England need another stroke of genius from Kane or Bellingham?

Consequently, concerns are growing across the island about an overreliance on the Kane/Bellingham duo. While the English media primarily praise the pair’s increasingly effective chemistry, they also emphasize that England needs more contributions from the supporting cast to make a deep run in the tournament. Tuchel, too, has publicly called for more support for his key players and expects even greater activity and efficiency from players like Saka, Gordon, and Rashford.

An offensive spectacle is therefore not to be expected in the Round of 32 either. In 13 of England’s 17 international matches under Thomas Tuchel so far, there have been no more than three goals—a clear indication of the “Three Lions’” controlled, low-risk style of play. Against a deep-defending opponent, we’re likely to see a similar scenario to the hard-fought 2-0 win over Panama: plenty of possession for England, few clear scoring chances, and a match that will probably only be decided by a moment of brilliance from Kane or Bellingham. That’s why the England vs. DR Congo odds for a favorite win with a maximum of three goals in the match are particularly interesting. You can get odds as high as 1.75 for this at Interwetten.

DR Congo – Statistics & Current Form

DR Congo has been one of the most defensively solid surprises of this World Cup so far. Sébastien Desabre’s team held Portugal to a 1-1 draw and lost by just 0-1 to an offensively strong Colombia. Overall, the numbers clearly point to low-scoring games: In 15 of their last 16 international matches, a bet on under 3.5 goals would have paid off, and in 13 matches, even a bet on under 2.5 goals would have been successful. The Congolese defend extremely compactly, shift positions with discipline, and—with their back five—often close down the spaces between the lines against technically skilled opponents. This very strategy already worked against Portugal and, for long stretches, against Colombia as well.

Congo aims to keep a clean sheet for as long as possible

Up front, the DR Congo relies primarily on quick transitions. With Yoane Wissa, the team has a forward who can create danger at any moment with his dynamism and runs into space. Nevertheless, the underdog lacks consistent offensive firepower overall. The 3-1 victory in their final group stage match against Uzbekistan—in which Wissa, incidentally, scored twice—seems convincing at first glance, but the equalizer didn’t come until the 68th minute via a penalty kick, and the other goals didn’t follow until the 78th minute and in stoppage time, respectively. Coach Sébastien Desabre had also emphasized ahead of this decisive group stage match that his team deliberately plays defensively against stronger opponents and only had to adopt a more offensive approach against Uzbekistan because a win was a must.

The DR Congo will in all likelihood switch its game plan back to maximum compactness. The historic advancement to the knockout stage has already sparked great euphoria in the country.

With defensive stability on one side and England’s controlled style of play on the other, there’s every reason to expect a tough, hard-fought match with few scoring chances. While Wissa remains the most dangerous player on the counterattack, it will be difficult to score even a single goal against England’s solid defense.

England – DR Congo Head-to-Head Record

This will be the first-ever direct matchup between the two soccer nations. However, England has never lost a World Cup match against an African team. In nine World Cup matches, they’ve recorded five wins and four draws. Against Ghana’s “Black Stars,” however, the “Three Lions” struggled surprisingly hard in this year’s group stage. The match ended in a 0–0 draw. Conversely, the DR Congo also did not lose its only match against a European national team at this World Cup—against Portugal (1–1).

England – DR Congo Prediction

Despite their recent pragmatic performances, I see England as the clear favorite. The individual quality of the “Three Lions” is far superior to that of the DR Congo, and Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, in particular, have proven time and again that they can decide close matches with a solo effort. At the same time, however, there are many reasons to doubt that this will be an offensive spectacle. Under Thomas Tuchel, England plays with discipline. In 13 of their last 17 international matches under the German coach, there were three goals or fewer. On the other hand, the DR Congo is a team that is exceptionally well-organized defensively and has seen fewer than 3.5 goals in 15 of their last 16 international matches; in 13 of those, the “Under 2.5” bet would have paid out.

My recommendation, therefore, is for a confident but uninspiring victory for England. I certainly believe the Africans are capable of keeping the game open for a long time and posing challenges for England with their compact defensive unit. Ultimately, however, the superior individual quality of Tuchel’s squad should prevail. A 2-0 score seems to me to be the most likely outcome, which is why I see an England win combined with Under 3.5 goals as the most interesting betting strategy.